Executive Summary

Q3 2025 was a soft quarter on reported metrics, primarily due to weak Las Vegas visitation, poor table hold in both Las Vegas and Regionals, and low sports hold in September; consolidated net revenues were $2.869B (flat YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA was $884M (-11% YoY) .
Versus S&P Global consensus, CZR delivered a modest revenue miss ($2.87B vs $2.89B*) and a larger EPS miss (-$0.27 vs -$0.09*), while Adjusted EBITDA came in below the $943M* consensus as hold and mix weighed; hold-adjusted EBITDA would have been $927M, narrowing the sap from hold-related headwinds .
Management expects sequential improvement in Q4 driven by stronger Las Vegas occupancy and group mix (targeting ~17% of room nights), stable Regional trends, and ongoing digital momentum; Las Vegas hold was a major drag in Q3 and management emphasized recovery into Q4 and early 2026 .
Balance sheet progress continues: $546M of 8.125% notes due 2027 were redeemed in July, and CZR repurchased ~3.9M shares for $100M during Q3 and October (13.2M/$391M since mid-2024), with a “balanced” capital allocation between debt reduction and buybacks; total debt $11.9B and cash $836M at 9/30/25 .
Near-term stock catalysts: evidence of Q4 Las Vegas recovery via group compression, improved table hold normalization, and Digital execution (shared wallet rollout and iCasino growth) offsetting sports hold volatility; continued buybacks and lower interest expense also supportive .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Regional resilience and early payback on reinvestment: same-store Regional net revenues +6% YoY and Adjusted EBITDA +1.6% YoY; hold-normalized Regional EBITDA +4% as marketing efficiency improved and Danville/New Orleans performed well .
Digital volume strength: net revenues +3% YoY; iCasino net revenue +29% YoY with MUPs up 15% to 458,434 and ARPMUP of $200, driven by product upgrades and in-house content; shared wallet now live in 22 states with full rollout targeted by early 2026 .
Clearer path to Q4 recovery in Las Vegas via group compression: occupancy was 92% in Q3 (vs 97% LY) with ADR down ~5%, but group mix is expected to increase to ~17% in Q4; management reiterated a strong Q4 booking pace and the potential for record 2025 Las Vegas EBITDA aided by stronger group calendar .

What Went Wrong

Las Vegas hold and visitation: Las Vegas table hold fell to 17.4% (vs 24-month avg ~21%), with CEO noting hold down “almost 600 bps,” costing >$30M; Las Vegas Adjusted EBITDA fell to $379M from $472M (-19% YoY) .
Digital profitability headwinds: despite strong volumes, Caesars Digital Adjusted EBITDA declined to $28M from $52M due to poor September sports outcomes, higher acquisition marketing, and incremental state taxes; hold-normalized Digital EBITDA was ~$40M .
Consolidated profitability: Adjusted EBITDA declined 11% YoY to $884M; management cited poor hold across segments and lapping WSOP-related revenues (sold in 2024), with hold-adjusted EBITDA at $927M illustrating underlying run-rate strength .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2025 Consensus*
Net Revenues ($USD Billions)	$2.874	$2.907	$2.869	$2.894*
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.04)	$(0.39)	$(0.27)	$(0.09)*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$0.996	$0.955	$0.884	$0.943*

Hold-adjusted consolidated Adjusted EBITDA: $927M in Q3 2025 (vs $970M hold-adjusted Q3 2024), narrowing reported miss caused by hold .
Las Vegas EBITDA margin pressure reflected in lower occupancy (92% vs 97%) and ADR (-5%), coupled with poor table hold; consolidated Q3 2025 EBITDA margin 30.8% .

Segment Net Revenues ($USD Millions)

Segment	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	YoY %
Las Vegas	1,062	952	(9.8)%
Regional	1,446	1,536	6.2%
Caesars Digital	303	311	2.6%
Managed & Branded	68	73	7.4%
Corporate & Other	(5)	(3)	40.0%
Total	2,874	2,869	(0.2)%

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)

Segment	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	YoY %
Las Vegas	472	379	(18.8)%
Regional	498	506	1.6%
Caesars Digital	52	28	(46.2)%
Managed & Branded	19	18	(5.3)%
Corporate & Other	(40)	(47)	(17.5)%
Total	996	884	(11.2)%

Key Balance Sheet/Liquidity (quarter-end)

Debt and cash: Total outstanding debt $11.923B; cash and equivalents $836M; net debt $11.087B at 9/30/25 .
Liquidity: $2.792B (cash + available revolver) at 9/30/25 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Capital Expenditures (excl. Caesars Virginia JV)	FY 2025	~$600M	Mid-point $675M	Raised
Cash Interest Expense (net)	FY 2025	~$775M	~$790M	Raised
Cash Income Taxes (% of Adj. EBITDA)	FY 2025	~5% (pre-BBB)	~3–4%	Lowered
Capital Returns	Ongoing	Repurchased $100M in April	Repurchased ~$100M during Q3/Oct; 13.2M shares/$391M since mid-2024; balanced FCF to debt/buybacks	Maintained program

Additional color:

Redemption of $546M 8.125% 2027 notes in July; annual interest savings ~$44M; nearest maturity now 2028; WACD just over 6% .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Las Vegas leisure demand & group compression	Noted tough summer setup; stable forward bookings 90 days; record group year in 2025, strong Q4/1Q/2Q pipeline	Q3 soft: occupancy 92% (vs 97%), ADR -5%; hold down ~600 bps cost >$30M; improving into Q4 with group mix ~17% and better F1, BravoCon; Q4 can be up YoY	Improving sequentially into Q4
Regional reinvestment/promotions	Testing targeted offers; expected pruning to improve flow-through; ~$30M one-time Q2 headwinds (Tahoe, flooding, legal)	Hold-normalized Regional EBITDA +4%; continued refining of marketing; demand “pretty solid”	Improving
Digital growth & profitability	Q2 Adjusted EBITDA record ($80M) with 8.9% sportsbook hold; universal wallet rollout broadening	Q3 volumes strong; hold-normalized EBITDA ~$40M; MUPs +15%; iCasino +29%; 22 states on shared wallet; full rollout by early 2026	Growing, near-term hold volatility
Prediction markets/regulatory	Monitoring; won’t risk licenses	No change: monitoring; no impact seen; will not risk licenses	Stable
Capital allocation	Redeem high-coupon debt; opportunistic buybacks	Continued buybacks (~$100M) and debt paydown; WACD just over 6%; nearest maturity 2028	Supportive

Management Commentary

“Our regional portfolio delivered net revenues and Adjusted EBITDA growth… Our Las Vegas segment Adjusted EBITDA declined during the quarter due to lower city-wide visitation and poor table games hold… Digital… volumes were strong… negatively impacted by lower-than-expected sports hold during September.” — CEO Tom Reeg .
“Hold was down almost 600 basis points in Vegas in the quarter… impacted us a little over $30 million… July was the worst month… September the strongest… we anticipate recovery in the fourth quarter.” — CEO Tom Reeg .
“Same-store adjusted EBITDA of $379M and hold-normalized EBITDA of $398M [Las Vegas]… occupancy 92% vs 97% last year, ADR decreased 5%… group room night mix was 13% and… on track to deliver a record EBITDA year in 2025 due to our strong Q4 booking pace… group mix should increase to 17%.” — President/COO Anthony Carano .
“During the quarter… we repurchased 3.9 million shares… bringing aggregate share repurchases to 13.2 million for $391 million since mid-2024… balanced approach to free cash flow across debt reduction and share buybacks.” — CFO Bret Yunker .
“We will not put any of our licenses at risk [re: prediction markets]… if a path develops… prepared to go down that path.” — CEO Tom Reeg .

Q&A Highlights

Las Vegas trajectory: Leisure was soft in Q3 but improved through the quarter; group compression in Q4 expected to lift occupancy and rate; Q4 can be up YoY for Caesars despite calendar headwinds (e.g., NYE midweek) .
Pricing/Value debate: Management acknowledged isolated overpricing concerns but emphasized Vegas value spectrum and that small occupancy changes swing EBITDA materially; focus on group mix to compress rates and fill rooms .
Regional promotions: Increased targeted reinvestment not a “promo war”; pruning unprofitable offers with improving flow-through expected over coming quarters; demand steady; calendar nuances (Labor Day timing) explained monthly state data noise .
Digital seasonality and marketing: Q4 carries heavier partnership expense; marketing to normalize vs LY; elevated Q3 acquisition spend added near-term drag but expected to monetize via lifetime values; sportsbook outcomes remain a swing factor .
Cost focus and labor: Union contracts manageable; ongoing optimization; regional labor comps not strictly same-store due to Danville/New Orleans ramp; no acute cost pressures flagged .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus (actuals from company; consensus from S&P Global):

Revenue: $2.869B vs $2.894B* → slight miss (~$25M; ~0.9%) .
Diluted EPS: $(0.27) vs $(0.09)* → miss driven by Las Vegas and sports hold.
Adjusted EBITDA: $884M vs $943M* → miss; hold-adjusted EBITDA of $927M narrows the gap .

Forward consensus* (select):

Q4 2025 Revenue $2.908B*, EPS $(0.05); Q1 2026 Revenue $2.864B, EPS $(0.12); Q2 2026 Revenue $2.954B, EPS $0.16*.
Consensus target price ~$33.94*.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Performance Indicators (select)

KPI	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Notes
Las Vegas Occupancy	97%	92%	Lower city-wide visitation
Las Vegas ADR YoY	—	(5%)	ADR decline contributed to margin pressure
Las Vegas Table Hold	22.2%	17.4%	Below 24-mo avg (~21%); major EBITDA drag
Consolidated Adj. EBITDA (Hold-Adj.)	$970M	$927M	Hold headwinds explain bulk of delta vs reported
Digital MUPs	398K (implied)	458,434	+15% YoY; ARPMUP $200
Digital iGaming NGR	$96M	$124M	+29% YoY
Digital Adj. EBITDA	$52M	$28M; hold-adj. ~$40M	Sports hold and higher acquisition spend pressured EBITDA

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 softness was largely hold-driven and seasonal; hold-adjusted EBITDA ($927M) indicates underlying run-rate closer to flat-to-down low single digits YoY, with setup for sequential Q4 improvement as group mix compresses rates and boosts Las Vegas occupancy .
Regional strategy is working: targeted reinvestment is lifting rated play and revenues with improving flow-through; watch for margin improvement as pruning continues and Danville/New Orleans further ramp .
Digital remains a structural growth engine despite quarterly volatility: iCasino strength (+29% NGR), MUPs +15%, and shared wallet expansion underpin medium-term EBITDA scale-up; near-term outcomes in NFL remain a swing factor .
Capital allocation is supportive: debt reduction (note redemption) and ongoing buybacks (~6% share count reduction since mid-2024) should compound equity value as free cash flow improves with lower capex and interest .
Risk watch: continued sports hold volatility, Las Vegas leisure demand elasticity, and table hold normalization pace; conversely, upside from group-led compression and Digital execution could reset expectations.
Estimate implications: Q3 revenue/EPS/EBITDA misses suggest near-term consensus fine-tuning; hold-normalized trajectory and Q4 group visibility support a more constructive sequential outlook if execution holds and sports outcomes normalize .

Footnotes: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global consensus estimates. All other figures and qualitative statements are sourced from the company’s Q3 2025 Form 8-K press release, investor slides, and earnings call transcript as cited. Citations: .

Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary